Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 15.851710 18.067896 20.444022 23.176612 26.227699 29.524825 33.352670
2025-08-03 12.279733 15.245854 18.665367 22.880841 27.918217 33.724120 40.900554
2025-08-10 10.532455 13.817284 17.783895 22.892524 29.259801 36.893615 46.693592
2025-08-17 9.268309 12.775850 17.190269 23.099588 30.740891 40.219955 52.790279
2025-08-24 8.202937 11.814259 16.527934 23.054216 31.766110 42.893807 58.063536
2025-08-31 7.278400 10.920930 15.838955 22.862906 32.515591 45.175995 62.869623
2025-09-07 6.616014 10.306351 15.444866 22.992618 33.639108 47.936560 68.362896
2025-09-14 6.207286 10.004756 15.441882 23.632114 35.456680 51.672072 75.292756
2025-09-21 5.606267 9.354555 14.874796 23.403678 36.006633 53.652572 79.855253
2025-09-28 4.880266 8.440524 13.838485 22.397642 35.347787 53.865107 81.897911
2025-10-05 4.646679 8.277584 13.915503 23.046255 37.128416 57.608662 89.097461
2025-10-12 4.392194 8.054897 13.876536 23.501048 38.622751 60.977312 95.863515
2025-10-19 4.034742 7.635936 13.505805 23.426879 39.326277 63.242173 101.157545
2025-10-26 3.671990 7.174560 13.030571 23.150008 39.690783 65.003948 105.764309
2025-11-02 3.400580 6.846475 12.746409 23.154277 40.480548 67.420413 111.424928
2025-11-09 3.190869 6.609903 12.597109 23.366067 41.603276 70.382857 118.021362
2025-11-16 2.958289 6.308405 12.310334 23.319321 42.286443 72.664552 123.619238
2025-11-23 2.725054 5.983218 11.955527 23.126378 42.703866 74.522228 128.593605
2025-11-30 2.559511 5.774455 11.793803 23.257302 43.664975 77.279642 135.086661
2025-12-07 2.476496 5.723482 11.917877 23.903339 45.535425 81.586155 144.227799
2025-12-14 2.286793 5.435527 11.574578 23.672569 45.855595 83.323521 149.202774
2025-12-21 2.020458 4.959777 10.834824 22.656286 44.723515 82.563540 149.987756
2025-12-28 1.965744 4.936094 10.977484 23.311512 46.623287 87.017597 159.656322